How defeat to Belarus affected Finland’s Nations League prospects: what will it take to earn promotion?
Euroopa bränd VivatBet examines our national team’s position in the standings and assesses its chances of promotion to League B.
What changed after the match against Belarus?
Before Matchday 4, Finland had seven points, Albania six, Belarus four, and San Marino none. Our team couldn’t improve its position against Belarus. The match took place at a neutral venue in Budapest, but the opposition attacked from the opening whistle and scored in the first minute through Artem Shumanski’s powerful strike from outside the penalty area.
In the 15th minute, Belarus had a chance to double their lead after Matti Peltola committed a foul inside his own box. However, our captain, Lukas Hradecký, made a superb save to deny Zakhar Volkov from the penalty spot.
The Eagle Owls dominated possession throughout the match, with 74% to Belarus’s 26%, but managed only two shots on target and ultimately lost 1–0.
This was Finland’s first defeat in seven meetings with Belarus, ending their unbeaten run in the current Nations League campaign. Jacob Friis’s team also dropped to third in the group after Albania snatched a late 2–1 victory over San Marino in the other match.
Finland have not scored from open play in their last three games. The players and coach acknowledge that the team is struggling to create chances. However, the Eagle Owls have a set-piece specialist in Leo Walta, who struck twice from free kicks against Albania.
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What it takes to earn promotion to League B
Winning the group secures automatic promotion. A less desirable alternative is finishing second and then defeating a fourth-placed team from League B in the promotion/relegation playoffs.
Albania lead our group with nine points, while Finland and Belarus have seven each. However, the Eagle Owls sit third because of their inferior head-to-head record against Belarus. To finish ahead of them, our national team must collect more points over the final two matchdays.
How Finland can finish first
To give themselves the best chance of automatic promotion to League B, Jacob Friis’s team must defeat Albania and San Marino. The first match will be difficult and will go a long way toward deciding the outcome, but our team has already beaten Albania this fall. Even with two wins, however, Finland need Belarus to drop points.
Another possible scenario is a draw against Albania followed by a victory over San Marino. To finish first in that case, Finland would need one of the following combinations of results:
Belarus lose to San Marino and then beat Albania. Our team would finish with 11 points, while both rivals would have ten.
Belarus fail to beat San Marino and then draw with Albania. Finland and Albania would both finish with 11 points, but the Eagle Owls would have the advantage in their head-to-head record.
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